Semi Final: The non-political analysis of the assembly elections 2018

On 11th December 2018, results of assembly elections came out for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana. These elections are being called the Semi Final because of two factors: first, they happened six months before the Final (Lok Sabha Election) and second, number of states that they cover. Let’s analyse these elections and note important takeaways. The data used in this post is taken from official website of Election Commission results, www.eciresults.nic.in.

  • Seat Wise Results

Number of Seats

Party Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Chhattisgarh Mizoram Telengana
BJP 109 73 15 1 1
INC 114 99 68 5 19
TRS 0 0 0 0 88
MNF 0 0 0 26 0
BSP 2 6 2 0 0
Others 5 21 5 8 11
Total 230 199 90 40 119
Winning Party INC (Coalition) INC INC MNF TRS

Seat share

  • Vote Share

Vote Share

Party Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Chhattisgarh Mizoram Telangana
BJP 41 38.8 33 8 7
INC 40.9 39.3 43 30.2 28.4
TRS 0 0 0 0 46.9
MNF 0 0 0 37.6 0
BSP 5 4 3.9 0 0
Others 11.7 16.6 18.1 23.7 16.6
NOTA 1.4 1.3 2 0.5 1.1

Vote Share

Key Highlights:

  • Despite having slightly higher vote share in MP, BJP failed to form government. This fact highlights the old debate, “whether proportional representation be made basis of elections for Democracy”
  • There is no state in which any party won trust of more than 50% voters.
  • Vote share of NOTA is noteworthy in this election. It has increased slightly from last years.
  • Although there is no pattern in these elections and subsequent Lok Sabha Election, still following are overall winners in last such elections
Year State Overall Winner Final Winner
2003 BJP INC
2008 BJP INC
2013 BJP BJP
2018 Congress Pending

This election has made the battle for Lok Sabha much more interesting as now it is clear that mandate of the people is not for one single party. People cannot just be fooled by vision and prospect of greater good. They want tangible results which should come within time.

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